it seems that you are trying to do "recommendations", where in your case the feature is "actions" done by users. Considering both personalization (which builds model for each user based on his/her behavior) or collaborative filtering (which builds model associatively by finding similar users) as a general direction
What you are suggesting is something like a HMM in which you consider the observation is user action and state is the user intend. Based on your real application, this might work or not.
Another more promising way to model it is to directly build a discriminative model (logistic regression, svm) using the previous user action and user history as feature to predict the next move. If you have enough data, this would work not bad