Yes, your assumptions are correct: You can't load an external .swf containing AS3 and have the app execute the byte code.
If we ignore the fact that it would most likely not be approved by Apple it can't technically work. The reason is because the Adobe AIR app doesn't contain a virtual machine capable of interpreting the byte code in the .swf:
When you build your application for iOS, there is no interpreted code and no runtime in your final binary. Your application is truly a native iOS app.
Source: http://www.adobe.com/devnet/logged_in/abansod_iphone.html.