If I were you I would start small and not try to optimize for big data just yet. A lot of blogs you read about the downsides of a NoSQL solution are around large data sets - or people that are trying to do relational things with a database designed for de-normalized data.
My list of databases to consider:
Mongo. It has huge community support and based on recent funding - it's going to be around for a while. It runs very well on a single instance and a basic replica set. It's easy to set up and free, so it's worth spending a day or two running your own tests to settle the issue once and for all. Don't trust a blog.
Couchbase. Supports key/value storage and also has persistence to disk. http://www.couchbase.com/couchbase-server/features Also has had some recent funding so hopefully that means stability. =)
CouchDB/PouchDB. You can use PouchDB purely on the client side and it can connect to a server side CouchDB. CouchDB might not have the same momentum as Mongo or Couchbase, but it's an actively supported product and does key/value with persistence to disk.
Riak. http://basho.com/riak/. Another NoSQL that scales and is a key/value store.
You can install and run a proof-of-concept on all of the above products in a few hours. I would recommend this for the following reasons:
A given database might scale and hit your points, but be unpleasant to use. Consider picking a database that feels fun! Sort of akin to picking Ruby/Python over Java because the syntax is nicer.
Your use case and domain will be fairly unique. Worth testing various products to see what fits best.
Each database has quirks and you won't find those until you actually try one. One might have quirks that are passable, one will have quirks that are a show stopper.
The benefit of trying all of them is that they all support schemaless data, so if you write JSON, you can use all of them! No need to create objects in your code for each database.
If you abstract the database correctly in code, swapping out data stores won't be that painful. In other words, your code will be happier if you make it easy to swap out data stores.