First,one of the major benefits to CB is the fact that it is spread across multiple nodes. This also means your queries are spread across multiple nodes and you have a performance gain as a result (I know several other similar nosql spread across nodes - so maybe not relevant for your comparison?).
Next, I believe this question is a little bit too broad as I believe the answer will really depend on your usage. Does a given user only query his data one time, at random? If so, then according to you there will only be an in-memory benefit 10-15% of the time. If instead, once a user is on the site, they might query their data multiple times, there is a definite performance benefit.
Regardless, Couchbase has pretty fast disk-access performance, particularly on SSDs, so it probably doesn't make much difference either way, but again without specifics there is no way to be sure. If it's a relatively small document size, and if it involves a user waiting for one of them to load, then the user certainly will not notice a difference whether the document is loaded from RAM or disk.
Here is an interesting article on benchmarks for CB against similar nosql platforms.
Edit:
After reading your additional context, I think your scenario lines up pretty much exactly how Couchbase was designed to operate. From an eviction standpoint, CB keeps the newest and most-frequently accessed items in RAM. As RAM fills up with new and/or old items, oldest and least-frequently accessed are "evicted" to disk. This link from the Couchbase Manual explains more about how this works.
I think you are on the right track with Couchbase - in any regard, it's flexibility with scaling will easily allow you to tune the database to your application. I really don't think you can go wrong here.
Regarding your two questions:
- Not in Couchbase 2.2
- You should use relatively small document IDs. While it is true they are stored in RAM, if your document ids are small, your deployment is not "right-sized" if you are using a significant percentage of the available cluster RAM to store keys. This link talks about keys and gives details relevant to key size (e.g. 250-byte limit on size, metadata, etc.).