The program simply won't be able to start and fails immediately. The most important change in VS2012 is that it now specifies Windows version 6.0 in the /SUBSYSTEM linker option. Window XP will notice this, it is version 5.02, throw up its hands and fails the EXE start request or DLL load with ERROR_BAD_EXE_FORMAT.
Pretty important change btw, the appcompat shims that Windows turns on for executables that say that they were made to work on old Windows versions are fairly troublesome. The Aero lies are hard to deal with, should you care. The CRT was changed a great deal as well, using many more winapi functions that are only available in 6.0 and up. The Update1 revision limps along when it discovers them missing.