Question

For my complex systems subject (a little exam dealing with how to digitize complex nature phenomenona) I am supposed to build a little NetLogo project. Among the proposals I chose the one to simulate a pandemic influenza virus diffusion but there's no detail and, before asking the teacher for a meeting, I wanted to ask you some help Or guide lines... How can I realize this with NetLogo?

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Solution

I once did a simulation about Polar Bears and Seals, Polar Bears were supposed to SEARCH for seals when they were HUNGRY and Seals where supposed to DIVE to SURVIVE, they also REPRODUCED when they were OLD enough.

In your case you have 2 types of agents (at least). These are Humans and Virus. What I would do:

  • Take a look at how PROBABLY it is for a virus strain to get inside a Human.
  • How much time does it take for a virus strain to fully CONTAMINATE a Human?
  • In which PHASE of the virus strain is it possible to pass to another Human?
  • I would assume the virus strain is FLYING around (perhaps randomly) and a Human can get infected by just passing by the strain.
  • How CLOSE (to a strain and to another human) would 2 humans (or more) need to be to get contagied?
  • How long until a human dies before he gets a vaccine?
  • How long until the virus dies before it gets into a human?
  • Once I have these points conceptualized (write them down, don't leave them in your head!) I would start coding.
  • Make a draw of your NetLogo program to imagine all the variables you can control before the simulation begins (id. est. Number of humans, number of strains, number of already infected humans, virus survavility, probability that a human goes to the doctor and gets a vaccine).

Take a look at the pre-built examples in NetLogo, there is an example of the HIV where you can see the code! Of course this example it's very developed but it is a good guide to start with.

If you have the time, you can take a look at this game I played once, it reminded me of your problem. Try to think in the variables they control in the game: http://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view/448950

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