If the SMTP appender cannot send an email it would log an exception with this text: Error occurred while sending e-mail notification. This would be visible if internal debugging is enabled. Maybe you have filters or something like that configured that prevents log4net from sending an email.
You could download the source code of log4net and add extra logging to the SMTP appender to find out if the "SendMail" method of the appender gets called at all. If it does and no email and no error is shown, then we need to assume that the exchange server somehow swallows the emails. If the appender is not triggered, then you need to review your filter / buffer / threshold configuration.
Alternatively you could try to use the SmtpPickupDirAppender
.