I looked into this recently. Here are some relevant facts:
- Dmitry Baranovskiy, lead author, tweeted in July 2013 that there will be a new Raphael release, and that it is not abandoned.
- You can see from the GitHub contributions page that new contributors have joined and that there has been an increase in contributions since Feb 2013.
- There's a 2.1.1 release in the works as a milestone (as of August 2013, it's just a few issues away). It's going to be a bug fixing release - mainly testing and committing bug fixes that have already been suggested by the community in the year since 2.1.0 was released.
- There are also 2.2.0 and 2.3.0 releases planned on the above page that add new features and address other issues.
You'll notice if you look at the latest code commit that this line has been added to the source in the comments section:
Copyright (c) 2013 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved.
(naturally it's still open source, licensed under the MIT license.
Dmitry Baranovskiy started working for Adobe in May 2012. Adobe's copyright credits were added in 2013. 2013 saw a visible increase in activity on the Raphael Github page, with new commits and new milestones added.
(don't assume based on this that Adobe are involved or invested in Raphael as a company based on this. It's possible that they simply have a clause in their staff contracts that require or encourage their copyright to be on tech work their employees work on out of hours)
So the facts are, as of August 2013, Raphael is active, there are milestones that are being worked towards, Dmitry Baranovskiy is still involved, new individual contributors are involved, and Adobe and Sencha may be involved in some way.
We can't speculate about how involved they are or for how long, but these are the relevant facts.