How about this?
boolean a = true;
boolean b = false;
boolean c = false;
boolean d = false;
if ((a ? 1 : 0) + (b ? 1 : 0) + (c ? 1 : 0) + (d ? 1 : 0) == 1) {
System.out.println("You win!");
}
[edit]... or here's another way to do it :
if ((a ^ b ^ c ^ d) & ((a & b) == (c & d))) {
System.out.println("**XOR** You win!");
}