Yes, you are correct; paymentQueue:updatedTransactions:
will fire, just as if you were making the initial subscription purchase.
You can actually test this since renewals within the sandbox kick in at a much faster pace (up to six times a day) as explained here (scroll down to the bottom under "The Test Environment").
Also when you verify the transaction with Apple's verification service right after you made a test subscription purchase, look for the expires_date
field in the response, it will tell you when the next renewal will be triggered.