The error came from a custom element that has:
<a href="/blah/{{observableMap['my_key']}}">blah</a>
in it, after changing it to:
<a href="{{'/blah/' + observableMap['my_key']}}">blah</a>
the compiler is happy. (Is this a bug?)
For those who have the similar problem: I was able to locate the problematic code by modifying the common.dart and import_inliner.dart (in package polymer) to add more log output.