The Flash fallback only works on old browsers that can't process the <video>
element natively - but that doesn't include Opera. Opera tries to play your HTML5 media... and fails.
Your issue is that Opera can't play the mp4 file. Try adding a fallback webm version to support it:
<video controls>
<source src="video.mp4" type="video/mp4">
<source src="video.webm" type="video/webm">
<object>
...
</object>
</video>