This error means that the Tomcat process itself has crashed. The script attempts to connect to the tomcat shutdown port (usually 8005) - but it can't since tomcat has crashed. Hence, the "connection refused" error.
For the PID file, the railo_ctl script is just checking for a process id that's located in the PID file. Since that process has died, the PID file is no longer relevant and the script takes it's default action to deal with it.
What you specifically need to do is figure out why Tomcat is crashing. Check the catalina.out log file - as it would be your best source of clues to why Tomcat is crashing.
Hope this helps!