Being in a similar situation as you I think that a possible hint is the Pagodabox traffic visualizer. Also from one of the Pagodabox user stories I've concluded that having 16 service instances with 400 MB RAM each can handle 1M users (assuming that you have a reliable DB, and probably using Memcached).
(In AppFog the Services menu in the admin portal is really misleading - count instances in the Applications menu)