First, we know the three step probability transition matrix contains the answer (0.6815).
% MATLAB R2019a
P = [0.88 0.12;
0 1];
P3 = P*P*P
P(1,1) % 0.6815
Approach 1: Requires Econometrics Toolbox
This approach uses the dtmc()
and simulate()
functions.
First, create the Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) with the probability transition matrix, P
, and using dtmc()
.
mc = dtmc(P); % Create the DTMC
numSteps = 3; % Number of collisions
You can get one sample path easily using simulate()
. Pay attention to how you specify the initial conditions.
% One Sample Path
rng(8675309) % for reproducibility
X = simulate(mc,numSteps,'X0',[1 0])
% Multiple Sample Paths
numSamplePaths = 3;
X = simulate(mc,numSteps,'X0',[numSamplePaths 0]) % returns a 4 x 3 matrix
The first row is the X0 row for the starting state (initial condition) of the DTMC. The second row is the state after 1 transition (X1). Thus, the fourth row is the state after 3 transitions (collisions).
% 50000 Sample Paths
rng(8675309) % for reproducibility
k = 50000;
X = simulate(mc,numSteps,'X0',[k 0]); % returns a 4 x 50000 matrix
prob_survive_3collisions = sum(X(end,:)==1)/k % 0.6800
We can bootstrap a 95% Confidence Interval on the mean probability to survive 3 collisions to get 0.6814 ± 0.00069221
, or rather, [0.6807 0.6821]
, which contains the result.
numTrials = 40;
ProbSurvive_3collisions = zeros(numTrials,1);
for trial = 1:numTrials
Xtrial = simulate(mc,numSteps,'X0',[k 0]);
ProbSurvive_3collisions(trial) = sum(Xtrial(end,:)==1)/k;
end
% Mean +/- Halfwidth
alpha = 0.05;
mean_prob_survive_3collisions = mean(ProbSurvive_3collisions)
hw = tinv(1-(0.5*alpha), numTrials-1)*(std(ProbSurvive_3collisions)/sqrt(numTrials))
ci95 = [mean_prob_survive_3collisions-hw mean_prob_survive_3collisions+hw]
maxNumCollisions = 10;
numSamplePaths = 50000;
ProbSurvive = zeros(maxNumCollisions,1);
for numCollisions = 1:maxNumCollisions
Xc = simulate(mc,numCollisions,'X0',[numSamplePaths 0]);
ProbSurvive(numCollisions) = sum(Xc(end,:)==1)/numSamplePaths;
end