You're solving a constraint problem. Taking your first compound curve, and using four explicit coordinates for each subcurve, we have:
points1 = point[8];
points2 = point[4];
with the following correspondences:
points1[0] == points2[0];
points1[7] == points2[3];
direction(points1[0],points1[1]) == direction(points2[0], points2[1]);
direction(points1[6],points1[7]) == direction(points2[2], points2[3]);
we also have a constraint on the relative placement for points2[1] and points2[2] due to the tangent of the center point in your compound curve:
direction(points1[2],points[4]) == direction(points2[1],points2[2]);
and lastly, we have a general constraint on where on- and off-curve points can be for cubic curves if we want the curve to pass through a point, which is described over at http://pomax.github.io/bezierinfo/#moulding
Taking the "abc" ratio from that section, we can check whether your compound curve parameters fit a cubic curve: if we construct a new cubic curve with points
A = points1[0];
B = points1[3];
C = points1[7];
with B at t=0.5 (in this case), then we can verify whether the resulting curve fits the constraints that must hold for this to be a legal simplification.
The main problem here is that we, in general, don't know whether the "in between start and end" point should fall on t=0.5, or whether it's a different t value. The easiest solution is to see how far that point is along the total curve (using arc length: distance = arclength(c1) / arclength(c1)+arclength(c2) will tell us) and use that as initial guess for t, iterating outward on either side for a few values.
The second option is to solve a generic cubic equation for the tangent vector at your "in between" point. We form a cubic curve with points
points3 = [ points1[0], points1[1], points1[6], points1[7] ];
and then solve its derivative equations to find one or more t values that have the same tangent direction (but not magnitude!) as our in-between point. Once we have those (and we might have more than 2), we evaluate whether we can create a curve through our three points of interest with the middle point set to each of those found t values. Either one or zero of the found t values will yield a legal curve. If we have one: perfect, we found a simplification. If we find none, then the compound curve cannot be simplified into a single cubic curve.